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Pitcher Power Ratings
You would be hard pressed to find any sucessful professionl players in Las Vegas who don't have a real and definable bankroll, a season game plan of achievable net unit profits and a clear understanding of finding an edge and getting value. To get an edge you need to develop a system or method for guiding you. Generally a power rating is one of a series of methods that you can to provide insight. In essence you create you own line by manipulating data so you can find a game in which your method or methods indicate that there is an edge to one side or another.

Finding a valid method that meets your style or compentency takes trial and error. By suggesting a number of methods we hope to spark your imagination and provide a foundation for future profits.

As with most statistical methods you will need a large enough sampling of games to create a valid projection. In baseball "the golden days" are June, July and August. Some pitching-only based systems may work well as early as May when 5 or more starts have been completed.

This method will provide a season to date snap shot of pitcher performance.  Used with current pitcher form and team streaks it can lay the foundation for developing an eye for "the edge".  The focus of this power rating for baseball picthers is simple - in order to win you need to score and  in order to score you need to get on base.  The numbers derived from these calculations will point us to the picther who based on season to date performance is most likely to keep men off base and thereby reducing the opportunity for their opponents to score runs.

Data Source
USA Today Baseball Matchups

 Pitcher Data Needed

 1. Base runners allowed (BRA) season to date (Hits + Walks)

 2. Runs allowed allowed (RA) season to date (Earned and Unearned)

 3. Innings pitched (IP)season to date
 

Data Calculations

Average Base Runners Allowed (ABRA)per nine innings
Divide the BRA by IP then multiply by 9
BRA/IP X 9 = ABR

Average Runs Allowed (ARA) per nine innings
Divide the RA by IP then multiply by 9
RA/IP X 9 = ARA

Pitcher Power Rating calculation
(ABRA) X (ARA) = PPR

Example - May 1, 2001
Boston at Seattle

BOSTON RED SOX -- MARTINEZ,PEDRO (R)
2001 STARTS

Average Base Runners Allowed (ABRA)per nine innings
BRA: (Hits - 28) + (BB - 8) = 36
IP: 35
BRA/IP X 9 = ABR
(36/35) x9 = 9.26

Average Runs Allowed (ARA) per nine innings
ARA: 8
IP: 35
RA/IP X 9 = ARA
(8/35) X 9 = 2.05

Martinez Pitcher Power Rating calculation
(ABRA) X (ARA) = PPR
(9.26) X (2.05)= 18.98

SEATTLE MARINERS -- HALAMA,JOHN (L)
2001 STARTS

Average Base Runners Allowed (ABRA)per nine innings
BRA: (Hits - 30) + (BB - 7) = 36
IP: 27
BRA/IP X 9 = ABR
(37/27) x 9 = 12.33

Average Runs Allowed (ARA) per nine innings
ARA: 14
IP: 27
RA/IP X 9 = ARA
(14/27) X 9 = 4.66

Halama Pitcher Power Rating calculation
(ABRA) X (ARA) = PPR
(12.33) X (4.66) = 57.45

Picther comparison

As we said in our introduction the purpose of this excersise is to find the pitcher who based on season to date performance is most likely to keep men off base and thereby reducing the opportunity for their opponents to score runs.  In this game Halama's  rating is 57.45 and Martinez's rating is 18.98.  Based upon our stated premise the Red Sox would have an edge with Martinez in this game.  Again for a complete picture of team performance you might want to consider situational factors and current team performance. Finding value in the odds posted for this game would ultimately determine whether a wager would apply.  This result for this game played May 1, 2001 was Boston 4 Seattle 0.