Overview: Methods and systems to consider during bowl season

Prepare now for the college bowls

Now is the time to evaluate methods which can predict margin of victory (MOV) and projects total points scored for the college bowl matchups. Of course any numerical system requires some subjective and situational judgements to be mad and overlayed on these numbers. Here are some situational considerations.

We could have been a contender.
Every program is subject to the emotion pull of the season and even the best of teams can be found to be unisnspired at bowl time. The best recent example of this was the Kansas State team that lost to Texas A&M in overtime a few years back. They were just minutes away from what couldhave been a play for the national championship. The Wildcats were dropped in the BCS ranking and found theselves in a non-BCS coalition bowl game and they jsut didn't show up. The game was just a consolation game and the palyed it that way.

We are just happy to be here.
For every Kansas State there are a number of teams who have not been bowling in years and see the game as a big fat wet kiss of a thank you for playing so well. They prepare poorly, with coaching staff, alumni and athletic director all look upon the trip as a stocking stuffer to be enjoyed. The outcome be damned.

Minor bowls are offensive slug fests.
For awhile this old bromide was a sure a thing as there can be in sports betting. But all good trends work back to 50% and this is no different. Still, you can expect pro style offenses to push the ball expecially against the may 6-5 and 7-3 marginal defenses. The linesmker isn't blind to this so if you build a better mosuse trap this might just be the better bait to draw the prey.

Momentum.
Many teams are a tale of two seasons. Look for those who have ended strongly, playing well in the tougher conferences - especially on the road. Most bowl games tend to be fairly evenly split between partisan and neutral ticket holders so there is only small enviornmental factors. Some teams still play closer to home than others giving a regional field advantage. Good road teams are prepared for this having played in the most hostile stadiums in the SEC, Big-12, Big-10(11).

Spider Theory
I can't rememebr where this came from but it would seem to be either originating with Jim Barnes or Jack Painter in the 80's. The method uses offensive and defensive Yards Per Point (YPP) and calculates a power rating from them.

Step 1
All teams start with a base 100 rating. From here we would subtract the offensive YPP. Example: Team A = 100 (base rating) - 14.6. 100-14.6 = 85.6

Step 2
Add the defensive YPP to the result in step 1 above. Example: Team A Step 1 rating = 85.6, their defensive YPP = 19.3. 85.6 + 19. 3 = 104.9

Step 3
Repeat steps 1 & 2 for opponent. Team B rating. 100 - 12.1 (offensive YPP)= 87.9
87.9 + 12.0 (defensive YPP)= 99.7

Step 4
Compare the ratings.
Team A = 104.9
Team B = 99.7

Team A has 5.2 rating advantage. Look for overlays against the line of 3 or more points.