Don Best: NFL Betting
by Don Best Sports
(Editor's note: Don Best Sports is a leader in sports betting informationa and what
we consider to be one of the MUST HAVE on-line bookmakrs.)
Football took over from baseball as America's game about twenty years ago and it just
keeps getting more popular. When it comes to betting on football, everybody considers
themselves something of an expert. If you've been a success wagering on football in the
past, more power to you. By all means don't change what you're doing. We are going to
give you guidelines that have been proven to be very helpful. They may not fit your
betting style and they're not guaranteed to get you rich. First let's make one thing
perfectly clear. In my opinion, any casual bettor who claims to beat pro football on a
regular basis is a liar. College football, maybe, the pros, no way!
1) SHOP FOR THE BEST NUMBER
We cannot emphasize this enough. You can't go into one sportsbook,
check out the lines on the games you're planning on betting
and plunk down your money. Unless you're using the Don Best
computerized line service and know what the numbers are at every
casino you have to expend a little shoe leather and shop around.
You can escape laying or taking the worst of it once and a while
but over the course of a long season it will drain your bankroll.
2) NEVER LAY MORE THAN 7 POINTS IN THE NFL
You can get away with laying big lumber in college. The talent
level between the top teams and the bottom teams and between
different conferences, is huge. In the NFL, as the old saying
goes, "on any given Sunday anybody can win" or more important
in our case, cover the spread. Please don't fall in love with
the "public" teams that are double- digit favorites, week after
week. They will destroy your Sunday afternoon, not to mention
your wallet.
3) TOTALS-BET OVER EARLY AND UNDER LATE
A healthy majority of recreational bettors are over players
so it makes sense, especially early in the season when weather
is rarely a factor, to bet under later in the week after the
totals have been driven up. This holds especially true for TV
games where the odds makers automatically inflate the total,
knowing the public loves to bet anything they can watch.
4) USE POWER RATINGS
Picking winners in football is a game of numbers. You don't
have to know the name of every starting quarterback in the NFL
or how many returning starters a college team has compared to
their opponent. What you should be looking for is a hole in
the line as put up by the bookmakers and the best way to do
this is find a power rating that you're comfortable with and
stick with it. There are a ton of newsletters, or tout sheets
if you prefer, who publish weekly power ratings. In most cases
you can line your garbage can with their selections, but check
out how close their numbers are to the posted line. If a publication
has an eight to ten point difference on every game, chuck it.
This isn't what you're looking for. Don't look to come up with
a play for every game on the board or every game on TV. Try
to be selective and find three or four solid plays that you
feel confident with.
5) NEVER PLAY PARLAYS OR TEASERS
A lot of you aren't going to like this one, but it is a logical
rule of thumb. Do not bet parlays or teasers. If you've ever
been in any of the fancy new Las Vegas betting palaces, remember
those plush chairs you're reclining in and those "free" drinks
that scantily -clad cocktail waitress keeps bringing you, were
paid for by parlay and teaser bettors. If you're looking to
stay in the battle for the long haul and show a profit at the
end of the season avoid parlays like the plague. If your goal
is to turn a toothpick into a lumberyard then fire away.
6) DON'T PLAY TV GAMES JUST TO HAVE ACTION
How many times have you heard one friend turn to the other and
ask "Who do you like in the Ram game John?" "I don't really
have an opinion Bill, it's too tough a game for me." "What do
you mean you don't have an opinion, the game is on TV?" Just
because the game is on TV doesn't mean you have to bet on it.
That's not listed in the rules anywhere I've ever seen. Security
does not come around and check to see if you have a ticket on
the game on the big screen. Keep an eye on TV games and you're
likely to pick up something that will help you in the future.